Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 0.352599 0.402286 0.456241 0.519157 0.590480 0.668803 0.761314
2025-08-31 0.274621 0.339107 0.414580 0.509329 0.625017 0.761596 0.935030
2025-09-07 0.227872 0.302375 0.395701 0.520959 0.684466 0.890454 1.169517
2025-09-14 0.180439 0.256227 0.357422 0.502013 0.702904 0.971741 1.358475
2025-09-21 0.148132 0.224167 0.331943 0.495202 0.735581 1.075775 1.593077
2025-09-28 0.122058 0.196146 0.307246 0.485041 0.761440 1.173590 1.833538
2025-10-05 0.107461 0.182609 0.301342 0.501256 0.828018 1.339246 2.197582
2025-10-12 0.092184 0.165228 0.286524 0.500860 0.868239 1.469708 2.525725
2025-10-19 0.080789 0.152290 0.276729 0.506849 0.919265 1.623781 2.913479
2025-10-26 0.072373 0.143086 0.271732 0.520043 0.984105 1.809061 3.379425
2025-11-02 0.061338 0.127062 0.251918 0.503190 0.992314 1.896072 3.682787
2025-11-09 0.051049 0.110645 0.228709 0.476105 0.976985 1.937527 3.906815
2025-11-16 0.044014 0.099859 0.215265 0.467108 0.997494 2.053179 4.297589
2025-11-23 0.037951 0.090038 0.202204 0.456853 1.014088 2.163956 4.696080
2025-11-30 0.034378 0.085092 0.198653 0.466292 1.073512 2.369820 5.320354
2025-12-07 0.029328 0.075766 0.183918 0.448573 1.071184 2.446304 5.681319
2025-12-14 0.025760 0.069331 0.174698 0.441962 1.092811 2.577531 6.181684
2025-12-21 0.022535 0.063132 0.164977 0.432507 1.106265 2.692241 6.661044
2025-12-28 0.020981 0.061007 0.164889 0.446745 1.178930 2.952983 7.518345
2026-01-04 0.018890 0.057011 0.159367 0.446198 1.214679 3.130973 8.201278
2026-01-11 0.017294 0.054102 0.156221 0.451409 1.266070 3.354233 9.028086
2026-01-18 0.016119 0.052197 0.155488 0.463093 1.336470 3.634863 10.040499
2026-01-25 0.014119 0.047387 0.145782 0.447966 1.331442 3.720306 10.554173